Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly set in motion a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Process

Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already under way, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.