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Increasing concerns have emerged over the chance of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and the Eritrean government, as aggressive discourse has escalated in the last month.

What Did Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's demands for access to the maritime outlet through Eritrea has sparked a heated war of words.

Ethiopian Prime Minister first openly declared in 2023 that his country's sea access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Ties between the both governments have often been tense. After a long-standing fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a 1,350km (840-mile) Red Sea coastline, legally broke away from Ethiopia in 1993, making it without sea access.

Five years later, a military clash broke out in which over a hundred thousand people lost their lives.

Latest Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrean southern port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and suggested the desire to take it by force.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected in the future".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

Despite ongoing threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been limited to short statements on social media from Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's push for sea access calling it "risky" and a "toxic agenda" of "irredentism" – a strategy of claiming back former lands.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on 16 September that moves to justify "flagrant aggression" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Activities on the Ground

Currently, there are little evidence of major military movements in the border areas between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, government media has displayed training completions of thousands of cadets at different defense facilities.

The head of staff section of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "many thousands of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Previous Background of the Tension

For over fifty years from the late 19th century, Eritrea was ruled by Italian rulers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British administration before turning into a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I terminated this agreement and Eritrea became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended internal conflict occurred, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then endorsed by Eritreans in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the governments in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the exact location of their shared boundary, causing conflict in 1998.

Although this concluded in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations continued at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made gestures to Eritrean President President Isaias. The two agreed to a declaration that the war was concluded – a move that earned the Prime Minister the international recognition.

The two governments were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 armed struggle in the northern region.

Yet diplomatic connections have since broken down anew.