Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third In the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Official Statistics

The typical count of daily killings monthly in Mexico has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per recent government data. However, public safety experts have warned that homicide figures could fail to point to improved countrywide safety.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidency in the previous September. This information was shared by the chief of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded in these past months is very notable,” the President remarked, adding that the previous month the least number of homicides were registered for any single November in the last 10 years.

Recent Background and Government Strategy

Fierce cartel rivalries, coupled with the government’s highly militarised operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent times. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, as reported by the country’s official data agency.

That gave Mexico a murder rate over four times greater than the United States. However, killings have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has attributed her national security plan for an seemingly more pronounced decline in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the President said: “We have a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central elements of Sheinbaum’s safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s national guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

However, public safety researchers cautioned that relying on murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was problematic. This is notably true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be very good information if this were a drop, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not valid for gauging the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who lack the resources or the will to correctly recognize and classify remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to hide violent acts through abductions.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was similarly concerning because it could mask periods when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average renders high peaks of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Almost 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per official data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of organised crime. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Public Frustration

However despite these measures, Mexico is still plagued by high violence, with multiple regions in the grip of cartel-related bloodshed. In the previous month there was a prominent murder of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

Weeks after, thousands of young people took to the streets in the capital and across the country to show their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The government shares [data] in a manner to create a story of safety. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly problematic,” Vargas concluded.