A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
